The NFL has recently extended its deal with DirectTV. The new deal pays the league $1 billion per season from 2011 to 2014. The billion dollar rights fee is guaranteed, which will give the owners a significant war chest if they decide to lock the players out in 2011.
The players want a bigger piece of the revenue pie, but going to war the owners might not put them in a better place than they're currently in. For starters, if a deal is not reached, the 2010 season will be uncapped. While this sounds good for the players, the uncapped season comes with a lot of strings that would hinder player movement. For instance:
- Players would need 6 years of service to become an unrestricted free agent
- each team would have 2 transition tags
- no salary floor, which means some teams will definitely cut salary significantly
- the teams reaching the championship games would have to lose a free agent to sign one
- the teams reaching the divisional round would also face strict restrictions on player movement
The free agency pool would be severely limited in 2010 if the players do not try to reach a deal with the owners, and many players hoping to break the bank in 2010 will be very disappointed. The owners are already preparing to weather a work stoppage, and I don't think players realize that it's very likely the 2011 season will be lost. They should try to negotiate as soon as possible, to salvage the 2011 season, and get an offseason in 2010 that is not constrained by so many restrictions.

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